The Reform vote and inequality

This weekend I published my new analysis of the Reform vote and the relationship between the regions and places that voted for Reform and deprivation and inequality.

It was covered by the Observer here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/oct/05/increase-wealth-taxes-to-stop-rise-of-reform-uk-says-ex-labour-minister

Using data prepared by the House of Commons Library matched to deprivation statistics, house price data and data from the Office of National Statistics Wealth and Asset Survey, there were three big takeaways from the analysis:

A. Regions where the overall growth in personal wealth was slowest between 2006/08 and 2018/20 – namely the North East and the East Midlands – were the regions where the Reform UK vote was highest. The region with the highest wealth growth – the South East – was the region where Reform did worst.

B. The top twenty Reform UK voting constituencies (where Reform averaged 30%) were characterised by:

o   House prices that were a third lower – £118,000 – than the national average (£195K vs £313K)

o   They were home to a third fewer adults with Level 4+ skills (21% vs 34%)

o   The proportion of households living in deprivation was 6% higher (58% vs 52%

C. In constituencies with the national average of non-white voters, there were robust correlations between house prices and the Reform vote. Where house prices were lower, the Reform vote was generally higher. In constituencies with house prices above the national average, Reform struggled to command more than 20% of the vote.

I've attached to this blogpost the slide deck of the results. Let me know what you think!

Slides - The Reform Vote & Inequality - Oct 2024.pdf

Download PDF • 1.50MB