So here’s a bit of a round-up. Bottom-line; encouraging signs that the shot in the arm we gave the economy is beginning to work – hence we’re cautiously optimistic that growth will return by the end of the year.
NIESR, a leading independent forecasting team, said in its rolling 3 month estimate of GDP was now positive – based largely on figures showing that manufacturing output rose sharply, by 0.9% last month.
One of the key indicators of forward confidence, hit an 18 month high. The PMI survey reported; ‘Output rose for the fourth successive month and at the steepest pace since February 2008’. The manufacturing index rose at the fastest rate since December 2007. The ONS also reported that; ‘Total production output increased by 0.5 per cent between June and July’.
Finally, much depends on the shape of world growth and trade. Economists are revising up estimates of global growth next year. The IMF argued ‘high-frequency data point to a return to modest growth at the global level’, and the OECD say; ‘Recovery from the global recession is likely to arrive earlier than had been expected a few months ago but the pace of activity will remain weak well into next year…Governments will need to continue to stimulate their economies as rising unemployment and weak housing markets continue to dampen private demand’